研究者詳細 - 後藤　励

論文 - 後藤　励

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Impact of COVID-19 on the Volume of Acute Stroke Admissions: A Nationwide Survey in Japan

Yoshimoto T., Yamagami H., Sakai N., Toyoda K., Hashimoto Y., Hirano T., Iwama T., Goto R., Kimura K., Kuroda S., Matsumaru Y., Miyamoto S., Ogasawara K., Okada Y., Shiokawa Y., Takagi Y., Tominaga T., Uno M., Yoshimura S., Ohara N., Imamura H., Sakai C.

Neurologia Medico-Chirurgica （Neurologia Medico-Chirurgica） 62 （ 8 ） 369 - 376 2022年

ISSN 04708105

This study aimed to measure the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the volumes of annual stroke admissions compared with those before the pandemic in Japan. We conducted an observational, retrospective nationwide survey across 542 primary stroke centers in Japan. The annual admission volumes for acute stroke within 7 days from onset between 2019 as the pre-pandemic period and 2020 as the pandemic period were compared as a whole and separately by months during which the epidemic was serious and prefectures of high numbers of infected persons. The number of stroke patients declined from 182,660 in 2019 to 178,083 in 2020, with a reduction rate of 2.51% (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.58%-2.44%). The reduction rates were 1.92% (95% CI, 1.85%-2.00%; 127,979-125,522) for ischemic stroke, 3.88% (95% CI, 3.70%-4.07%, 41,906-40,278) for intracerebral hemorrhage, and 4.58% (95% CI, 4.23%-4.95%; 13,020-12,424) for subarachnoid hemorrhage. The admission volume declined by 5.60% (95% CI, 5.46%-5.74%) during the 7 months of 2020 when the epidemic was serious, whereas it increased in the remaining 5 months (2.01%; 95% CI, 1.91%-2.11%). The annual decline in the admission volume was predominant in the five prefectures with the largest numbers of infected people per mil-lion population (4.72%; 95% CI, 4.53%-4.92%). In conclusion, the acute stroke admission volume declined by 2.51% in 2020 relative to 2019 in Japan, especially during the months of high infection, and in highly infected prefectures. Overwhelmed healthcare systems and infection control practices may have been associated with the decline in the stroke admission volume during the COVID-19 pandemic.

ヘルスケアの幅広い価値とその評価. 週刊社会保障

後藤励

週刊社会保障 76(3176) 46 - 51 2022年

CiNii Research

Examining the association between menstrual symptoms and health-related quality of life among working women in Japan using the EQ-5D

Shimamoto K., Hirano M., Wada-Hiraike O., Goto R., Osuga Y.

BMC Women's Health （BMC Women's Health） 21 （ 1 ） 2021年12月

Background: Menstrual symptoms have been identified as a substantial burden among women of reproductive age, affecting their health status and quality of life globally. A range of menstrual symptoms have been studied as they affect the health-related quality of life (HRQoL), showing variations across specific menstrual symptoms and study settings. A major concern is demonstrated due to menstrual symptoms in women’s professional and social life, and consequently societal and economic loss for women and the society at large. Yet evidence is scarce that estimates the index form HRQoL score related to menstrual symptoms that is needed for health economic evaluations. Methods: This study aims to investigate the association between menstrual symptoms and the HRQoL among working women in Japan in an index form, using a self-reporting questionnaire (n = 6048). The EQ-5D-3L (EuroQoL 5-dimension 3-level) is used that is a widely used tool to measure health outcomes for health economic evaluations globally. Multivariate regression analysis is conducted to assess the association between the HRQoL score and specific nineteen physical and mental conditions related to menstruation (e.g., pain, heavy bleeding, concentration, negative affect). Results: The index form HRQoL score for menstrual symptoms is estimated as 0.682 in the study population (where a score one suggests perfect health). The association of the HRQoL score varies substantially across the menstrual symptoms. Several of the physical conditions and disorders show a substantial negative association with the HRQoL score. Also, most of the mental and psychological issues are significantly and negatively related to the HRQoL score. Conclusions: This study suggests that HRQoL is substantially and negatively affected by menstruation among working women in Japan. Distinct variations of negative influences across menstrual symptoms underscore the multi-dimensional nature of menstruation and consequently the need of collective interventions to address these difficulties. The evidence of HRQoL continues to be an important area for future research on women’s health and health economic evaluations to inform effective and efficient resource allocations for relevant health policies and financing strategies.

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Comprehensive and long-term surveys of COVID-19 sequelae in Japan, an ambidirectional multicentre cohort study: Study protocol

Nakagawara K., Namkoong H., Terai H., Masaki K., Tanosaki T., Shimamoto K., Lee H., Tanaka H., Okamori S., Kabata H., Chubachi S., Ikemura S., Kamata H., Yasuda H., Kawada I., Ishii M., Ishibashi Y., Harada S., Fujita T., Ito D., Bun S., Tabuchi H., Kanzaki S., Shimizu E., Fukuda K., Yamagami J., Kobayashi K., Hirano T., Inoue T., Kagyo J., Shiomi T., Ohgino K., Sayama K., Otsuka K., Miyao N., Odani T., Oyamada Y., Masuzawa K., Nakayama S., Suzuki Y., Baba R., Nakachi I., Kuwahara N., Ishiguro T., Mashimo S., Minematsu N., Ueda S., Manabe T., Funatsu Y., Koh H., Yoshiyama T., Saito F., Ishioka K., Takahashi S., Nakamura M., Goto A., Harada N., Kusaka Y., Nakano Y., Nishio K., Tateno H., Edahiro R., Takeda Y., Kumanogoh A., Kodama N., Okamoto M., Umeda A., Hagimura K., Sato T., Miyazaki N., Takemura R., Sato Y., Takebayashi T., Nakahara J., Mimura M., Ogawa K., Shimmura S., Negishi K., Tsubota K., Amagai M., Goto R., Ibuka Y., Hasegawa N., Kitagawa Y., Kanai T., Fukunaga K.

BMJ Open Respiratory Research （BMJ Open Respiratory Research） 8 （ 1 ） 2021年11月

Introduction The rapid spread of COVID-19 posed a global burden. Substantial number of people died of the disease in the acute phase of infection. In addition, a significant proportion of patients have been reported to suffer from post-acute phase symptoms, sequelae of COVID-19, which may negatively influence the quality of daily living and/or socioeconomic circumstances of the patients. However, no previous study has comprehensively and objectively assessed the quality of life of patients by using existing international scales. Further, evidence of socioeconomic consequences among patients with COVID-19 is scarce. To address the multidimensional issues from sequelae of COVID-19, evidence from comprehensive surveys beyond clinical perspectives is critical that investigates health, and social determinants of disease progression as well as socioeconomic consequences at a large scale. Methods and analysis In this study, we plan to conduct a nationwide and comprehensive survey for the sequelae of COVID-19 in a total of 1000 patients diagnosed at 27 hospitals throughout Japan. This study will evaluate not only the health-related status of patients from clinical perspectives but also the Health-related Quality of Life (HRQoL) scores, socioeconomic status and consequences to discuss the sequelae of the disease and the related risk factors. The primary endpoint is the frequency of long-term complications of COVID-19 infection. The secondary endpoints are risk factors for progression to sequelae of COVID-19 infection. The study will provide robust and important evidence as a resource to tackle the issues from the sequelae of COVID-19 from the multi-dimensional perspectives. Ethics and dissemination This trial was approved by the Keio University School of Medicine Ethics Committee (20200243, UMIN000042299). The results of this study will be reported at a society meeting or published in a peer-reviewed journal.

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Medical costs according to the stages of colorectal cancer: an analysis of health insurance claims in Hachioji, Japan

Utsumi T., Horimatsu T., Nishikawa Y., Hoshino N., Takahashi Y., Goto R., Kashihara S., Fukuyoshi J., Nakayama T., Seno H.

Journal of Gastroenterology （Journal of Gastroenterology） 56 （ 10 ） 903 - 913 2021年10月

ISSN 09441174

Background: Although the effect of the early detection of colorectal cancer (CRC) on medical costs needs to be clarified, there are few reports on the actual medical costs of CRC patients in Japan. We aimed to identify medical costs according to CRC stage, using health insurance claims. Methods: This observational study included CRC patients who had received specific treatment for CRC, which was defined by the procedure code and the claim computer processing system code associated with the treatment of CRC. CRC patients who underwent endoscopic or radical surgical treatment were defined as the curable group and those with palliative treatment, including palliative chemotherapy, as the non-curable group. Total medical costs and medical costs of specific treatments for CRC for 3 years were measured using the claims held by Hachioji City from May 2014 to July 2019. Results: This study included 442 patients in the curable group, including 267 patients who underwent endoscopic treatment, and 175 patients who underwent radical surgical treatment, and 161 patients in the non-curable group. The mean (standard deviation) total medical costs in the curable and non-curable groups were 2,130 (2,494) and 8,279 (5,600) thousand Japanese Yen (JPY), respectively. The mean (standard deviation) medical costs for the specific treatment of CRC in the curable and non-curable groups were 408 (352) and 3,685 (3,479) thousand JPY, respectively. Conclusions: We clarified the actual medical costs of CRC in curable and non-curable groups. These results suggest the effect of early detection of CRC in reducing medical costs.

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First-year healthcare resource utilization costs of five major cancers in Japan

Watanabe T., Goto R., Yamamoto Y., Ichinose Y., Higashi T.

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health （International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health） 18 （ 18 ） 2021年09月

ISSN 16617827

Reports on the expenditure of cancer treatments per patient using comprehensive data remain unavailable in Japan. This study aimed to use Japan’s cancer registry data and health service utilization data for evaluating the disease-specific, per-patient costs of five major cancers—stomach, lung, colorectal, liver, and breast cancers. We used a database linking the 2017 data from a hospital-based cancer registry and the health service utilization data from the Diagnosis Procedure Combination survey. All patients who started their first treatment course at each hospital were included. The costs were calculated using the total volume of the health services provided and the unit fee information included in the data. We analyzed 304,698 patients. Lung cancer had the highest healthcare cost per-patient for the first year of diagnosis and the longest median hospitalization duration. Conversely, breast cancer showed the lowest cost and the shortest median hospitalization duration. However, in the first month after diagnosis, colorectal cancer showed the highest cost. Subsequently, the gaps between the costs of the five common cancers drastically diminished. The cancer type having the longest hospitalization duration had the highest overall healthcare resource utilization costs. This information is essential for care planning and research studies.

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Evaluation of the Quality of Life and Health-Related Quality of Life of Patients With End-Stage Kidney Disease Resulting From Kidney Transplantation Using the Kidney Disease Quality of Life-Short Form and EuroQOL-5 Dimension-5 Level Questionnaires

Sawada A., Hiragi S., Tamura H., Goto R., Matsuyama Y., Sakai K., Miyata H., Yanagita M., Kuroda T., Ogawa O., Kobayashi T.

Transplantation Proceedings （Transplantation Proceedings） 53 （ 3 ） 881 - 884 2021年04月

ISSN 00411345

Background: Renal transplantation improves the quality of life (QOL) of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients with renal failure. However, it remains unclear which renal disease-specific QOL aspects determine general health-related QOL of ESRD patients. This study aimed to identify these QOL items by examining the QOL of ESRD patients using the Kidney Disease Quality of Life-Short Form (KDQOL-SF), version 1.3, and EuroQoL-5 dimension-5 levels (EQ-5D-5L) questionnaires. Methods: We conducted QOL surveys with 67 renal transplant recipients at our hospital. EQ-5D-5L, which evaluates general health-related QOL, was the response variable, and KDQOL-SF, which includes the renal disease-specific instrument and general health-related QOL SF-36 instrument, was the explanatory variable. We analyzed the effects of each KDQOL-SF domain on EQ-5D-5L using Pearson correlation coefficient. Results: Regarding the general health-related QOL assessed by SF-36, physical health aspects, such as physical functioning (R = 0.749) and daily functioning physical (R = 0.603), showed a strong correlation with EQ-5D-5L, and the domains related to the psychological and social aspects of QOL showed a limited correlation. Regarding kidney disease-specific scales, symptoms/problems related to physical function showed a good correlation (R = 0.691) with EQ-5D-5L, whereas other scales, including burden of kidney disease (R = 0.168), quality of social interaction (R = 0.284), and those related to the mental and social aspects of QOL showed a low correlation with EQ-5D-5L. Conclusion: Among kidney transplant recipients, the physical health aspects of QOL, such as symptoms/problems, were the major factors influencing overall QOL as assessed by EQ-5D-5L.

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うつ病患者の活動記録を利用した社会医学研究者と医療経済学者の共同研究

熊谷成将, 田近亜蘭, 後藤励, 古川

医療経済研究（医療経済学会/医療経済研究機構） 32 （ 2 ） 78 - 89 2021年03月

ISSN 1340895X

The current paper introduced the two joint studies by the study group of social medicine and health economist. The study group collected digital data consisting of individual activity records such as location or mobility information (lifelog data) from 89 patients who were on maintenance therapy for depression for a year, using a smartphone application and a wearable device.
　 Before these joint studies, no prior studies have established a method that could identify the warning signs of its recurrence. In addition, to prevent relapse of patients with major depression, it is necessary to examine the predictors influencing false negatives and identify the early signs of recurrence.
　The first study by a panel vector autoregressive model indicated that long sleep time was an important risk factor for the recurrence of depression. Long sleep predicted the recurrence of depression after 3 weeks. Recurrent depression was defined by the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale and the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 scores. In contrast, considering the small number of relapsed cases and the overdispersion generated by excess zero, the second study aimed to investigate “sitting idly” as a predictor influencing falsenegatives using a zero-inflated negative binomial model because false negatives which can lead to delays in diagnosis and treatment must be avoided. Estimates of the population-averaged parameters indicated that daily hours of sitting idly increased the chances of recurrent depression two or four weeks later. The change in exposure to daily UV light from non-exposure reduced recurrent depression.
　Before the commencement of the joint study, it is indispensable to explain the significance of the economic study clearly to medical researchers. In the academic society where both of medical researchers and economists belong to, it is important to arrange the opportunity to understand the difference in each idea.

Association between single limb standing test results and healthcare costs among community-dwelling older adults

Tominaga R., Yamazaki S., Fukuma S., Goto R., Sekiguchi M., Otani K., Iwabuchi M., Shirado O., Fukuhara S., Konno S.i.

Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics （Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics） 92 2021年01月

ISSN 01674943

Background and objective: Identifying risks for older adults who will require healthcare resources is critical for the government, healthcare providers, and consumers. The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between the results of the single limb standing (SLS) test and healthcare costs among community-dwelling older adults. Methods: We used data obtained from a population-based prospective cohort study of the residents of Tadami town in Fukushima Prefecture, Japan. The participants were above 60 years of age and had undergone annual health check-ups, and data on their healthcare costs over the two-year study period were available. A censored regression model adjusted for potential confounders was used to estimate the mean difference in total healthcare costs between participants who could remain standing on a single limb for at least 30 s and those who could not. Results: Healthcare costs of participants who passed the SLS test were significantly lower than those who did not. The mean difference between the two groups’ healthcare costs was 4064 USD (95 % confidence interval: 2661–5467 USD, p < 0.05). After adjusting for potential confounders, the mean difference between the two groups was smaller (1686 USD) but remained statistically significant (95 % confidence interval: 125–3246 USD, p < 0.05). Conclusions: Among community-dwelling older adults, limited static balance (SLS time <30 s) was found to be associated with high healthcare costs in the two years after the SLS test. The SLS test may help identify individuals at high risk of becoming frequent users of healthcare services in the future.

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The effects of patient cost-sharing on health expenditure and health among older people: Heterogeneity across income groups

Kato H., Goto R., Tsuji T., Kondo K.

European Journal of Health Economics （European Journal of Health Economics） 23 （ 5 ） 847 - 861 2021年

ISSN 16187598

Despite rapidly rising health expenditure associated with population aging, empirical evidence on the effects of cost-sharing on older people is still limited. This study estimated the effects of cost-sharing on the utilization of healthcare and health among older people, the most intensive users of healthcare. We employed a regression discontinuity design by exploiting a drastic reduction in the coinsurance rate from 30 to 10% at age 70 in Japan. We used large administrative claims data as well as income information at the individual level provided by a municipality. Using the claims data with 1,420,252 person-month observations for health expenditure, we found that reduced cost-sharing modestly increased outpatient expenditure, with an implied price elasticity of – 0.07. When examining the effects of reduced cost-sharing by income, we found that the price elasticities for outpatient expenditure were almost zero, – 0.08, and – 0.11 for lower-, middle-, and higher-income individuals, respectively, suggesting that lower-income individuals do not have more elastic demand for outpatient care compared with other income groups. Using large-scale mail survey data with 3404 observations for self-reported health, we found that the cost-sharing reduction significantly improved self-reported health only among lower-income individuals, but drawing clear conclusions about health outcomes is difficult because of a lack of strong graphical evidence to support health improvement. Our results suggest that varying cost-sharing by income for older people (i.e., smaller cost-sharing for lower-income individuals and larger cost-sharing for higher-income individuals) may reduce health expenditure without compromising health.

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Risk preferences, rationality of choices, and willingness to pay for preventive medicine in patients with graves’ thyrotoxicosis

Emoto N., Okazaki-Hada M., Yamaguchi Y., Okajima F., Goto R., Sugihara H.

Patient Preference and Adherence （Patient Preference and Adherence） 15 1971 - 1979 2021年

Purpose: Patients with thyrotoxicosis show neuropsychological changes, and these may damage the quality of informed consent in clinical practice. Therefore, we examined patients’ real-life preferences to assess whether change in risk preferences was dependent on thyroid function state. Patients and Methods: The participants were 86 patients who were newly diagnosed with Graves’ thyrotoxicosis between 1 January and 31 December 2018 (group A), and an additional 33 euthyroid patients diagnosed before 2018 (group B). In a survey conducted via a questionnaire based on the concept of behavioral economics, we sought to determine risk preferences, rationality of choices, and other relevant factors. An identical second survey was completed 6–12 months later by 36 patients in group A after their thyroid functions had been normalized by treatment, and by 11 euthyroid patients in group B. We performed paired analysis of the first and second surveys in 32 patients of group A and single regression analysis of a total of 140 surveys obtained from 119 patients by combining the first and second surveys of groups A and B with serum level of FT3 as an independent variable. Results: The paired analysis indicated that there was no significant difference in any survey item. The single regression analysis revealed that willingness-to-pay (WTP) for preventive medicine and monthly average out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditure on medical care were both significantly positively associated with serum level of FT3. Patients in the hyperthyroid state tend to have high WTP for preventive medicine, which may be accelerated by the anchoring effect of OOP expenditure. Conclusion: Almost all risk preferences of patients with Graves’ disease are constant, rational, and reproducible in the hyperthyroid and euthyroid states. However, medical professionals should be aware that the willingness of patients with thyrotoxicosis to pay for medical costs may change after the normalization of thyroid function.

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Cost-effectiveness of extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: A multi-centre prospective cohort study

Matsuoka Y., Goto R., Atsumi T., Morimura N., Nagao K., Tahara Y., Asai Y., Yokota H., Ariyoshi K., Yamamoto Y., Sakamoto T.

Resuscitation （Resuscitation） 157 32 - 38 2020年12月

ISSN 03009572

Aim: Extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR) is an evolving resuscitative method for refractory cardiopulmonary arrests. However, considering the substantial healthcare costs and resources involved, there is an urgent need for a full economic evaluation. We therefore assessed the cost-effectiveness of ECPR for refractory ventricular fibrillation/pulseless ventricular tachycardia (VF/pVT). Methods: We developed a decision model to estimate lifetime costs and outcomes for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients with VF/pVT who received either ECPR or conventional cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) was used as the main outcome measure. This model was a combination of a decision tree model for the acute phase based on a prospective observational study (SAVE-J study), together with a Markov model for long-term follow-up periods extrapolated from published data. To evaluate the robustness of this model, we conducted a comprehensive deterministic sensitivity analysis (DSA) and a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). Results: ECPR was cost-effective, with an incremental cost of ¥3,521,189 (Є30,227), an incremental effectiveness of 1.34 QALY, and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of ¥2,619,692 (Є22,489) per QALY gained. DSA revealed that the present model was most sensitive to probability of Cerebral Performance Category 1 after ECPR (¥2,153,977/QALY to ¥3,186,475/QALY), patient age (¥2,170,112/QALY to ¥3,334,252/QALY), and long-term medical cost for modified Rankin Scale 0 (¥2,280,352/QALY to ¥2,855,330/QALY). PSA indicated ECPR to be cost-effective and below the willingness-to-pay threshold of ¥5,000,000 with an 86.7 % possibility. Conclusions: ECPR was an economically acceptable resuscitative strategy, and the results of the present study were robust even when considering the uncertainty of all parameters.

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Socio-demographic determinants of motorcycle speeding in Maha Sarakham, Thailand

Hong V., Iwamoto S.K., Goto R., Young S., Chomduangthip S., Weeranakin N., Nishi A.

PLoS ONE （PLoS ONE） 15 （ 12 December ） 2020年12月

Thailand has the highest road traffic fatality rate in Southeast Asia, making road safety a critical public health concern. A 2015 World Health Organization (WHO) Report showed that speeding behavior was the most important determinant for road traffic crashes in Thailand. Here, we aimed to examine associations of socio-demographic factors (gender, age, socioeconomic status) with self-reported motorcycle speeding behavior. Additionally, we examined a potential role of time discounting and risk preference as mediators in the association of socio-demographic factors with speeding. We used data obtained from the Mahasarakham University Social Network Survey 2018 (MSUSSS) (N = 150). We ran linear network autocorrelation models (lnam) to account for the data's social network structure. We found that males are more likely than females to engage in speeding behavior (β = 0.140, p = 0.001) and to discount the future (β = 5.175, p = 0.017). However, further causal mediation analysis showed that time discounting does not mediate the gender-speeding association (p for mediation = 0.540). Although socioeconomic status (subjective social class) was not associated with speeding (β = 0.039, p = 0.177), age was marginally associated with speeding (β = 0.005, p = 0.093). Future studies may consider using a larger sample.

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Prevalence of problem gambling among Japanese adults

Mori T., Goto R.

International Gambling Studies （International Gambling Studies） 20 （ 2 ） 231 - 239 2020年05月

ISSN 14459795

The prevalence of problem gambling has garnered considerable interest in numerous developed countries. In Japan, problem gambling may be far more prevalent than in other developed countries; however, there is little empirical research confirming this. Therefore, we estimated the prevalence of problem gambling in Japan using a standardized screening tool: The South Oaks Gambling Screen Revised (SOGS-R) and investigated the association between problem gambling and demographics such as gender, age, marital status, income, and educational background. We believe this study is necessary because gambling is a growing social problem in Japan that could worsen with the expected introduction of casinos in Japan due to the legalization of casino gambling in December 2016. Therefore, we surveyed participants’ experience of casino games both on the internet and abroad. Cross-sectional data were collected via a web-based survey of 6576 Japanese adults 20 years old and older. We found that the prevalence rate of problem gambling in Japan was significantly high from an international perspective. Restricting casino accessibility for individuals with high-risk factors could be effective in reducing gambling problems.

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Cost-effectiveness of rivaroxaban versus warfarin for stroke prevention in non-valvular atrial fibrillation in the Japanese healthcare setting

Hori M., Tanahashi N., Akiyama S., Kiyabu G., Dorey J., Goto R.

Journal of Medical Economics （Journal of Medical Economics） 23 （ 3 ） 252 - 261 2020年03月

ISSN 13696998

Aims: This article aimed to examine the cost-effectiveness of rivaroxaban in comparison to warfarin for stroke prevention in Japanese patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF), from a public healthcare payer’s perspective. Materials and methods: Baseline event risks were obtained from the J-ROCKET AF trial and the treatment effect data were taken from a network meta-analysis. The other model inputs were extracted from the literature and official Japanese sources. The outcomes included the number of ischaemic strokes, myocardial infarctions, systemic embolisms and bleedings avoided, life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), incremental costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). The scenario analysis considered treatment effect data from the same network meta-analysis. Results: In comparison with warfarin, rivaroxaban was estimated to avoid 0.284 ischaemic strokes per patient, to increase the number of QALYs by 0.535 per patient and to decrease the total costs by ¥118,892 (€1,011.11) per patient (1 JPY = 0.00850638 EUR; XE.com, 7 October 2019). Consequently, rivaroxaban treatment was found to be dominant compared to warfarin. In the scenario analysis, the ICER of rivaroxaban versus warfarin was ¥2,873,499 (€24,446.42) per QALY. Limitations: The various sources of data used resulted in the heterogeneity of the cost-effectiveness analysis results. Although, rivaroxaban was cost-effective in the majority of cases. Conclusion: Rivaroxaban is cost-effective against warfarin for stroke prevention in Japanese patients with NVAF, giving the payer WTP of 5,000,000 JPY.

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Current treatment patterns and medical costs for multiple myeloma in Japan: a cross-sectional analysis of a health insurance claims database

Uno S., Goto R., Suzuki K., Iwasaki K., Takeshima T., Ohtsu T.

Journal of Medical Economics （Journal of Medical Economics） 23 （ 2 ） 166 - 173 2020年02月

ISSN 13696998

Aims: Various drugs have recently been launched for the treatment of multiple myeloma (MM). This increase in the number of treatment options has potentially changed treatment patterns and medical costs for patients with MM. Japanese public health insurance claims were analyzed to examine the change in the treatment patterns of MM drugs and medical costs per patient. Materials and methods: A claims database provided by Medical Data Vision was used, which includes data from ∼20 million patients from >300 acute care hospitals across Japan. The type of MM drugs prescribed and medical costs for patients with MM between April 2008 and December 2016 were examined using monthly cross-sectional analyses. Patients with an International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) diagnosis code of C90.0 were classified as having MM. MM drugs were defined by generic names. Results: In total, 19,137 patients with MM (average age at first diagnosis: 69.6 years; percentage of women: 47.9%) were identified from the database. The percentage of patients prescribed each MM drug changed substantially as novel drugs were launched. Total medical costs increased until 2010, then stabilized. MM drug costs increased from approximately 2010, but costs for other care decreased, particularly for hospitalization (including surgery). Limitations: The database contained data from large, acute care hospitals, which may have caused bias in terms of patients’ clinical history and disease severity. Conclusions: Total medical costs for MM have remained stable since 2010. MM drug costs increased, but costs for other care decreased after the launch of lenalidomide in 2010 and other drugs in 2015 and later. More detailed research is required to confirm whether the launch of novel drugs caused the changes in medical costs.

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Irrational responses to risk preference questionnaires by patients with diabetes with or without retinopathy and comparison with those without diabetes

Emoto N., Soga A., Fukuda I., Tanimura-Inagaki K., Harada T., Koyano H.M., Goto R., Sugihara H.

Diabetes, Metabolic Syndrome and Obesity: Targets and Therapy （Diabetes, Metabolic Syndrome and Obesity: Targets and Therapy） 13 4961 - 4971 2020年

Purpose: The risk preferences of patients with diabetes have profound effects on the progression of complications. The present study aimed to clarify whether the preferences of patients with diabetes and retinopathy are deliberately risk-seeking or irrational and whether this propensity is specific to those with retinopathy or is also found in patients without retinopathy compared with those without diabetes. Patients and Methods: A total of 394 patients with diabetes (264 without retinopathy and 130 with retinopathy) and 198 patients without diabetes agreed to participate in this survey. The questions were modified versions of those from the Japan Household Survey on Consumer Preferences and Satisfaction, which sought to determine the participants’ personal socioeconomic status and risk preferences. In the questionnaires, responses were analyzed by determining the participants’ willingness to pay for a lottery ticket and for an insurance policy. Irrational responses were defined as violations of two axioms of the Expected Utility Theory: completeness and transitivity. Results: The incidence of irrational responses increased with age and was associated with educational level. The incidence of irrational responses was significantly higher in patients with retinopathy than in those without retinopathy after adjusting for age and educational level. There was no significant difference in the incidence of irrational responses between patients with diabetes but without retinopathy and those without diabetes. Conclusion: The risk-seeking behavior of patients with diabetes and retinopathy was not deliberate but was irrational under uncertainty. Medical professionals should be aware of their patients’ propensity to make irrational decisions, which is an important risk factor for the progression of retinopathy in patients with diabetes regardless of age and educational level.

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Nudging patients with chronic kidney disease at screening to visit physicians: A protocol of a pragmatic randomized controlled trial

Fukuma S., Ikenoue T., Sasaki S., Saigusa Y., Misumi T., Saito Y., Yamada Y., Goto R., Taguri M.

Contemporary Clinical Trials Communications （Contemporary Clinical Trials Communications） 16 2019年12月

ISSN 24518654

Background/Aims: Strategies for an effective intervention after chronic kidney disease (CKD) screening have not been well examined. We describe the rationale and design of a protocol of a pragmatic randomized controlled trial (RCT) to test the effect of a behavioral intervention using the nudge approach in behavioral economics on CKD patients’ visiting behaviors to physicians and change in their kidney function after CKD screening. Methods: The RCT will include CKD patients (N = 4500) detected at screening (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] <60 mL/min/1.74 m2 or urine protein ≥1+), aged 40–63 years. The two intervention groups will receive a “usual letter” and “nudge-based letter,” while the control group will only receive a conventional follow-up. Our primary outcome is proportion of patients’ visiting physicians for 6 months after the intervention; the secondary outcome is change in the eGFR at 2 years after the intervention. Results: We developed an efficient intervention program after CKD screening and designed the pragmatic RCT to assess its effectiveness in the real world. Our trial is unique in that it investigates the effect of the nudge approach in behavioral economics. By the end of 2018, we have enrolled 1,692 participants, and randomized 677 participants into the usual letter group, 677 participants into the nudge-based letter group, and 338 participants into the control group. We have confirmed that health checkup data could identify a large number of eligible participants. Conclusion: The trial's results will contribute to filling in the gap between screening and subsequent medical interventions for preventing CKD progression.

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Willingness to pay for QALY: perspectives and contexts in Japan

Igarashi A., Goto R., Yoneyama-Hirozane M.

Journal of Medical Economics （Journal of Medical Economics） 22 （ 10 ） 1041 - 1046 2019年10月

ISSN 13696998

Objectives: Theoretically, willingness-to-pay (WTP) for quality-adjusted life years (QALY) can vary depending on social and personal preferences and on ex-ante and ex-post settings. However, empirical investigations into the theoretical differences are lacking. In Japan, setting the threshold has been controversial since a pilot project to implement health technology assessments (HTA) launched in 2016. The study aim is to estimate WTP values for one additional QALY from different perspectives, health statuses, and contexts to confirm the difficulty in setting a uniform price threshold using WTP. Methods: More than 1,000 respondents representing a cross-section of the Japanese population answered each of nine questionnaire decks in an online panel. WTP values were estimated on three different perspectives (personal, social, and socially inclusive) and on two contexts (ex-ante and ex-post). This study primarily used the non-parametric spike model based on double-bounded dichotomous choice (DBDC) settings to obtain the conditional WTP values. Results: WTP per QALY was higher in the severe health status than in the moderate health status from all perspectives. Respondents from the socially inclusive perspective estimated the highest WTP value for a new drug. Respondents were also asked about life-threatening diseases in ex-post and ex-ante. The WTP value in ex-ante was higher than in ex-post, and demographic factors affecting the WTP were different in both situations. The various WTP values were obtained from these surveys. Limitations: The analysis was based on data collected from an internet panel, which could be biased. There is also a risk that respondents answered the questionnaire differently if asked in everyday situations. Conclusion: Use of a uniform price threshold may not be appropriate in policy settings, because it may not reflect diverse preferences based on different situations, such as disease type and severity. Setting a price threshold as Japan institutes an HTA system requires further research.

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Impact of improved price transparency on patients' demand of healthcare services

Kobayashi D., Goto R., Tsugawa Y.

Social Science and Medicine （Social Science and Medicine） 235 2019年08月

ISSN 02779536

Evidence is limited and mixed as to how improved price transparency affects patients' demand for healthcare. Price transparency usually affects both the supply and the demand side of healthcare. However, in Japan—where healthcare providers cannot compete on prices—we can examine an independent impact of price transparency on patients' demand for healthcare. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of improved price transparency on patients' demand for healthcare. We conducted an experiment by presenting patients with the “price list” of individual healthcare services. We provided the price list for a limited time and compared the healthcare spending and utilization of care between these patients who were provided the price list (patients who visited between the first and third week of January in 2016) versus those who were not (patients who visited during the same period in 2015 or 2017), adjusting for potential confounders. A total of 1053 patients were analyzed (27.5% were provided the price list). We found that improved price transparency was associated with a higher total cost per patient (adjusted difference, +16.1%; 95%CI, +0.6% to +34.0%; p = 0.04). We also found that improved price transparency was associated with higher costs related to laboratory tests and imaging studies, and a larger total number of items of blood tests and urine tests. By conducting an experiment in a real-world setting, we found that improved price transparency paradoxically increased the utilization of healthcare services in Japan. These findings suggest that when prices are relatively low, as is the case in Japan, reduced uncertainty about the prices of healthcare service may make patients comfortable requesting more healthcare services.

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