KEIO RESEARCHERS INFORMATION SYSTEM

Career 【 Display / hide 】

Career 【 Display / hide 】

• 2002.04

  -

  2004.04

  Japan Bank for International Cooperation, 開発第4部

• 2004.05

  -

  2006.08

  Japan Bank for International Cooperation, 国際審査部

• 2007.06

  -

  2007.09

  United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Intern

• 2009.05

  -

  2009.08

  International Monetary fund, IMF Institute, Intern

• 2011.09

  -

  2013.08

  World Bank, Economist

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Academic Background 【 Display / hide 】

Academic Background 【 Display / hide 】

• 1998.04

  -

  2002.03

  Keio University, Faculty of Economics

• 2006.09

  -

  2007.05

  Brown University, Graduate School of Economics, M.A.

  United States

• 2007.06

  -

  2012.05

  Brown University, Graduate School of Economics, Ph.D.

  United States

Research Areas 【 Display / hide 】

Research Areas 【 Display / hide 】

• Humanities & Social Sciences / Economic policy

• Humanities & Social Sciences / Public economics and labor economics

Papers 【 Display / hide 】

Papers 【 Display / hide 】

• Fiscal expectations, the sovereign–bank nexus, and bond yields in emerging and developing economies

  Manabu Nose

  Journal of Macroeconomics  2026.06

  • Access to Document (DOI)

• Demographic Influences on Technology Adoption: Network Effects in E-commerce Diffusion

  Daiji Kawaguchi, Sagiri Kitao, Manabu Nose

   2026

  • Access to Document (DOI)

• Digitalization, Firm Resilience, and Inequality in Global Crises

  Manabu Nose

   2026

  • Access to Document (DOI)

• Enhancing Tax Capacity: Revenue Gains from Strengthening Tax Administration

  Jean-Marc Atsebi, Nikolay Gueorguiev, Manabu Nose

  IMF Working Papers  2025.10

  ISSN  1018-5941

  　View Summary

  <jats:p>Building on previous studies, we propose a robust estimation strategy to uncover the causal effects of tax administration strength on tax revenue in 121 countries over the period 2014–2022. Our novel approach utilizes a unique expert survey to construct an Operational Strength Index of tax administration, using the International Survey on Revenue Administration (ISORA), and employs an instrumental variable strategy based on the IMF Fiscal Affairs Department’s Capacity Development programs. We find that strengthening tax administration significantly boosts tax revenue, particularly in emerging and developing economies, and especially in countries with lower levels of informality, stronger institutions, and higher financial development. These findings carry important policy implications for governments and development partners aiming to enhance tax administration capacity and strengthen public finances overall.</jats:p>

  • Access to Document (DOI)

• Enhancing Efficiency of Public Expenditure Through GovTech

  Nose Manabu

   2025.10

  　View Summary

  <title>Abstract</title>
  <p>How can the digitalization of fiscal operations (GovTech) improve budget processes and the delivery of public expenditure? A simple framework identifies three channels--greater transparency, lower administrative costs, and improved targeting of social assistance--and generates testable predictions. This paper provides systematic cross-country evidence, extending insights from the micro-experimental literature to the macro level. Fixed-effects regressions show that digital budget payments and e-procurement are associated with higher budget transparency and broader social assistance coverage among the poor. However, adopting GovTech strategies alone is insufficient to unlock these gains. Causal forest estimates reveal substantial heterogeneity: with the largest gains in social transfer coverage in countries that have enabling institutions such as digital identification systems. Digital connectivity exhibits nonlinear effect—strong at low levels of access but yielding diminishing returns once near-universal coverage is achieved. These results highlight the importance of sequencing GovTech with foundational enablers, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.
  JEL Classification: E60, H11, H50, H61, H83, O23, O38</p>

  • Access to Document (DOI)

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Research Projects of Competitive Funds, etc. 【 Display / hide 】

Research Projects of Competitive Funds, etc. 【 Display / hide 】

• Evaluation of Public and Private Provisions of Infrastructure for Urban Development: Application of Big Data

  2018.04

  -

  2021.03

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Nose Manabu, Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists, No Setting

  　View Summary

  Using geocoded ground-level data and satellite imageries, the project analyzed the impact of infrastructure investments (through public and private financing) on industrialization and spatial income distribution. The interregional highway construction in China and northern Vietnam significantly expanded local market potential, and facilitated the agglomeration of manufacturing firms. We observed the diffusion of economic activities to peripheral cities where overall gains in industrialization and real wages were larger, which equalized the initial spatial income inequality. I also used the contract-level data of public-private partnership (PPP) and unpacked the mechanism why PPP investments tend to increase the fiscal risk in emerging and low-income countries. The adverse selection and fiscal manipulation due to weak fiscal management are shown to be the main roots of low contract survival and high fiscal risk.

Courses Taught 【 Display / hide 】

Courses Taught 【 Display / hide 】

• RESEARCH SEMINAR (THESIS)

  2026

• DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS A

  2026

• RESEARCH SEMINAR B

  2026

• SEMINAR: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS

  2026

• DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS

  2026

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Courses Previously Taught 【 Display / hide 】

Courses Previously Taught 【 Display / hide 】

• CAMPUS Asia: International Public Policy in East Asia

  The University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Public Policy

  2017.09

  -

  2020.08

• Statistical Methods

  The University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Public Policy

  2017.09

  -

  2020.08

• Advanced Development Economics

  The University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics/Public Policy

  2017.09

  -

  2020.08

• Economics of the Environment in Developing Countries

  Brown University, Department of Economics

  2011.04

  -

  2011.08

• Introduction to Econometrics

  Brown University, Department of Economics

  2009.09

  -

  2010.01